Inter Milan vs AC Milan: Preview, Prediction & Lineups
The Derby della Madonnina is brimming with passion, history, and high stakes, but this time, it means everything. With a spot in the Coppa Italia final at stake, Inter Milan and AC Milan will meet for the fifth and final time this season, tied at 1-1 on aggregate after a fiercely contested first leg.
Despite the two Milanese giants sitting at opposite ends of the domestic form table, both clubs enter this midweek showdown with plenty to prove and everything to gain.
Inter Milan
Simone Inzaghi’s side may lack the invincibility they had in 2023, but they remain in contention for a historic treble: Serie A, Champions League, and Coppa Italia. After a 13-match unbeaten run, Inter suffered a 1-0 defeat to Bologna, a rare blip in a dominant campaign where they’ve battled Napoli for the Scudetto and reached the Champions League semi-finals, eliminating Bayern Munich.
The first leg against Milan was mixed. Hakan Calhanoglu’s stunning goal provided inspiration, but Inter’s fluidity was stifled by Mike Maignan’s goalkeeping. The second leg is crucial to keep their treble hopes alive.
Inter’s recent record in the Derby della Madonnina has faltered. After winning six straight between January 2023 and April 2024, they have gone four derbies without a win (two draws, two losses). Still, Inter can draw confidence from their knockout form under Inzaghi, winning two Coppa Italia trophies in the last three seasons. With Giuseppe Meazza behind them, they believe they can deliver again.
AC Milan
For AC Milan, the Coppa Italia semi-final against Inter is more than a derby, it is their last chance to salvage their season.
Despite Sergio Conceicao winning the Supercoppa Italiana in January by defeating Inter, that early success has turned to chaos. The Rossoneri are ninth in Serie A, 20 points behind their rivals and outside European qualification spots.
Their 1-0 loss to Atalanta BC highlighted their inconsistency and lack of attacking edge. Milan have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten home games, and a switch to a back three hasn’t fixed their defensive issues.
However, AC Milan have turned the tide in the derby this season — two draws and two wins have helped them regain belief against Inter. In the first leg, despite being outplayed at times, they relied on Maignan’s brilliance and Abraham’s composure.
Winning this match could represent redemption and resurrection for Milan. A Coppa Italia final would add silverware and secure a route into Europe, essential for attracting players and keeping key talent.
But the task is monumental. Inter have been dominant at home, and Milan need near-perfect execution to win.
Team News & Tactics
Inter Milan
Simone Inzaghi must rotate his squad wisely due to a busy April schedule and a season-defining Coppa Italia semi-final. Juggling Serie A, Champions League, and Coppa Italia, squad management is vital with a crucial domestic clash against Roma and a European semi-final against Barcelona looming.
Key wing-back Denzel Dumfries remains out with a muscular issue. Piotr Zielinski is also unavailable due to injury. Marcus Thuram is a doubt after a knock; his absence was felt against Bologna and could affect Inter’s attack if he doesn’t recover. Alessandro Bastoni and Henrikh Mkhitaryan are one yellow card away from a Serie A ban, but this doesn’t apply to the Coppa Italia, so they will feature.
If Thuram is unavailable, Joaquin Correa or veterans Marko Arnautovic and Mehdi Taremi could partner Lautaro Martinez. Martinez is one goal away from becoming the third Inter player to reach double digits in the Derby della Madonnina.
Inter is expected to line up in their trusted 3-5-2 formation. Yann Sommer will be in goal, shielded by Yann Bisseck, Stefan de Vrij, and Alessandro Bastoni. Matteo Darmian and Carlos Augusto will be wing-backs, while Nicolò Barella, Hakan Calhanoglu, and Henrikh Mkhitaryan form the midfield. If Thuram is out, Mehdi Taremi should start alongside Lautaro Martinez.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Sommer; Bisseck, De Vrij, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Augusto; Taremi, Martinez.
AC Milan
Sergio Conceicao faces a critical selection dilemma for this decisive Coppa Italia semi-final second leg. AC Milan is still recovering from a 1-0 defeat to Atalanta, and several key players remain unavailable through injury.
Kyle Walker and Emerson Royal remain out, limiting Conceicao’s options on the flanks, while Ruben Loftus-Cheek is also ruled out. Striker Santiago Gimenez has resumed training and made a late appearance in the weekend loss, but isn’t expected to start. Tammy Abraham and Luka Jovic are competing for the central striker role.
Abraham, who has performed well in cup ties, is likely to get the nod, flanked by Rafael Leão and Christian Pulisic in a revamped 3-4-3 formation. This setup aims to strengthen the defense while offering width and pace.
Mike Maignan will be in goal. The back three will consist of Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, and Strahinja Pavlovic. Alex Jimenez is expected to retain his place on the right flank, while Theo Hernández is on the left.
Youssouf Fofana and Tijjani Reijnders are expected to form the core pairing in central midfield, responsible for disrupting Inter’s rhythm and launching counters.
Given the stakes and Milan’s need for silverware and a route back into Europe, this setup provides the attacking edge and defensive structure needed to challenge Inter in one of the most important Derby della Madonnina clashes in recent memory.
Probable Lineup (3-4-3): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Fofana, Reijnders, Hernandez; Pulisic, Abraham, Leao.
Key Stats
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Inter Milan are unbeaten in their last four Coppa Italia matches against AC Milan. The last time Milan beat Inter in this competition was back in January 2017.
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AC Milan have managed just one clean sheet in their last 10 home matches in all competitions, conceding in nine straight games at San Siro.
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Inter are unbeaten in their last 9 Coppa Italia home matches. Their last defeat at home in this competition came back in 2017.
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Inter were unbeaten in six straight Milan derbies between January 2023 and April 2024, but AC Milan have avoided defeat in all four meetings this season, winning two and drawing two.
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Inter are aiming for their second treble in history — Serie A, Coppa Italia, and Champions League — having already reached the Champions League semi-finals and sitting joint-top of the league with Napoli.
Player to Watch: Lautaro Martinez
Lautaro Martínez is a key player in the Derby della Madonnina. With nine career goals against AC Milan, Martinez is just one goal away from becoming the third Inter player to reach double digits in goals in the iconic derby. His sharp movement, tireless pressing, and clinical finishing make him a constant menace, and with Marcus Thuram out, the creative and scoring burden will fall on him.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Prediction
Inter Milan 2-1 AC Milan (Inter win 3-2 on aggregate)
Inter’s home form and Martinez’s derby record suggest they will edge this closely contested match.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Live Stream
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